For the first time in several years, the Social Security Administration (SSA) has delayed its official 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement. The reason: the government shutdown has halted the release of the critical inflation report used to calculate the adjustment — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
This delay means that more than 71 million retirees, survivors, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients must wait longer to find out how much their monthly benefits will increase in 2026.
Economist Mary Johnson, from The Senior Citizens League, called the situation “deeply concerning,” noting that “a few weeks’ delay may seem minor in Washington, but for retirees living on fixed incomes, it complicates budgeting and essential spending decisions.”
Overview: Social Security COLA 2026 Delay
| Category | Details (as of October 2025) |
|---|---|
| Program | Social Security & SSI COLA Adjustment |
| Agency Responsible | Social Security Administration (SSA) |
| Data Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-W) |
| Original Announcement Date | October 15, 2025 |
| New Expected Date | Around October 24–28, 2025 |
| Reason for Delay | Federal government shutdown delaying CPI-W release |
| Expected COLA Range (Estimate) | 2.5% – 2.8% |
| Effective Date of New Payments | January 2026 |
| Beneficiaries Affected | 71+ million Americans (retirees, disabled, SSI recipients) |
Table of Contents
Why CPI-W Matters for Social Security?
The CPI-W is the foundation of every Social Security COLA decision. Each year, the SSA compares the average CPI-W from July, August, and September of the current year to the same period from the previous year.
If prices rise, benefits increase by that same percentage — preserving recipients’ purchasing power against inflation. Without the September data, however, the SSA cannot finalize or announce the 2026 COLA rate.
| COLA Calculation Method | Details |
|---|---|
| Data Source | CPI-W from the Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Reference Months | July, August, and September 2025 |
| Comparison Year | 2024 (same months) |
| Formula | % Change = (Average 2025 CPI-W – Average 2024 CPI-W) ÷ 2024 CPI-W × 100 |
| Outcome | Determines Social Security and SSI benefit increase for January 2026 |
Historically, this process wraps up by mid-October, but the shutdown pushed the BLS release from October 15 to October 24, 2025, stalling all official calculations.
The Effect of the Shutdown on Data Releases
According to an updated notice from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September 2025 CPI and CPI-W reports will now be released on October 24 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
The shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, caused partial furloughs across multiple federal agencies. The BLS, operating under limited staffing, paused nonessential operations, including statistical releases.
That single disruption has a cascading effect:
- The SSA cannot publish the official COLA.
- The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) cannot finalize Medicare Part B premium adjustments.
- Private-sector forecasts for inflation-indexed securities and pensions have been temporarily paused.
Financial analyst Brian Murdock from Fidelity Investments commented:
“It’s a perfect example of how a government shutdown ripples through everyday life. People think it’s only about federal paychecks, but it reaches retirees, markets, and household budgets too.”
Estimated COLA 2026: What Economists Predict
Even with the delay, early CPI-W data for July and August provide useful clues. Inflation trends suggest a modest COLA increase, likely between 2.5% and 2.8%.
For an average monthly benefit of $2,000, that would mean an increase of $50–$55 per month starting in January 2026.
| Projected COLA Scenarios for 2026 | Expected Increase | Approximate Monthly Boost (Avg. Benefit: $2,000) |
|---|---|---|
| Low Estimate (2.5%) | 2.5% | +$50/month |
| Moderate Estimate (2.7%) | 2.7% | +$54/month |
| High Estimate (2.8%) | 2.8% | +$56/month |
However, as many experts point out, this increase may be offset by higher Medicare Part B premiums and other living costs such as housing and energy.
Financial planner Laura Saunders noted, “Even with a COLA bump, retirees’ purchasing power could remain flat due to healthcare inflation and rising utility bills.”
Economic Implications of the Delay
The shutdown’s ripple effects extend beyond Social Security. When federal data stops flowing, it disrupts:
- Market forecasts tied to inflation-indexed bonds.
- Business planning based on consumer spending trends.
- Federal and state budget projections depend on inflation-adjusted formulas.
In short, a single missing CPI report freezes billions in financial decision-making across both public and private sectors.
Economist Jason Furman, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, summarized the issue:
“Without CPI data, policymakers are flying blind. The COLA delay is the most visible symptom, but the real issue is how economic transparency disappears during shutdowns.”
SSA’s Response and Next Steps
The Social Security Administration confirmed that COLA calculations are paused until CPI-W data becomes available. Once the BLS releases figures on October 24, the SSA will issue the official COLA announcement within a few business days, likely by October 28–29, 2025.
Despite the delay, beneficiaries will not lose money. The 2026 COLA increase will still take effect on January 1, 2026, and payments will be automatically adjusted for January benefit checks.
The SSA will also update its “My Social Security” online portal and mail COLA notification letters to recipients before December.
Historical Perspective: COLA Delays and Volatility
The COLA system has seen wide swings over the past decade:
| Year | COLA Rate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9% | Post-pandemic inflation surge |
| 2023 | 8.7% | Highest in 40 years |
| 2024 | 3.2% | Inflation stabilizing |
| 2025 | 2.5% | Moderate inflation rebound |
| 2026 (Pending)** | 2.5%–2.8% (Projected) | Shutdown delays final data |
Delays like this are rare but not unprecedented. A similar pause occurred during the 2013 government shutdown, though it lasted only 16 days. The 2025 delay, however, occurs at a critical juncture — when inflation is cooling but household expenses remain stubbornly high.
Why This Delay Matters?
For millions of retirees and people with disabilities, the COLA announcement isn’t just a number — it’s a lifeline. Seniors plan budgets around these annual increases to manage essential expenses like rent, groceries, and medication.
Advocacy groups like AARP have urged Congress to prioritize reopening government agencies, warning that prolonged uncertainty could create “emotional and financial strain for older Americans.”
In Alaska, where winter heating costs surge in November, retiree George Wilkins shared:
“I’m not worried about a few weeks’ delay, but I need to know what to expect. Every dollar counts when you live on Social Security alone.”
What Beneficiaries Should Do Now?
While waiting for the official announcement, beneficiaries are advised to:
- Check SSA.gov for official updates around October 24–30, 2025.
- Review current benefits using the My Social Security portal.
- Plan conservatively for January 2026 expenses, assuming a 2.5–2.7% increase.
- Ignore rumors on social media about “bonus” or “double” payments — the COLA increase is automatic and universal.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1. Why is the 2026 COLA delayed?
Ans. The government shutdown delayed the release of the September CPI-W inflation data needed to calculate the adjustment.
Q2. When will the announcement come out?
Ans. After the BLS publishes the CPI-W report on October 24, 2025, the SSA is expected to announce the final COLA by October 28–29, 2025.
Q3. Will this delay affect my January 2026 payment?
Ans. No. COLA increases will still take effect as scheduled in January 2026.
Q4. How much is the increase expected to be?
Ans. Analysts project between 2.5% and 2.8%, translating to roughly $50–$55 extra per month for the average beneficiary.
Q5. Where can I check for updates?
Ans. Visit ssa.gov/cola or log in to your My Social Security account for personalized notifications.