Millions of Americans who receive Social Security benefits may see a small increase in their monthly checks starting January 2026. A recent estimate suggests the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could be 2.7%. This comes after seniors received a 2.5% raise in 2025. The new estimate was released in August 2025 by the Senior Citizens League, a group that advocates for older adults. However, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will make the final decision in October 2025.
Social Security provides monthly payments to retired workers, people with disabilities, and survivors of deceased workers. Every year, the amount people receive may change based on how much prices have gone up. This change is called a cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.
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Social Security COLA 2026 Estimate
The 2.7% estimate was based on current inflation numbers. Each year, the Social Security Administration looks at inflation data from July, August, and September to decide how much to raise benefits. This data comes from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W measures how prices on common goods and services, like food, gas, and rent, change over time.
In July 2025, inflation held steady at 2.7%, the same as in June. Inflation has remained below 3% since the beginning of the year, but experts believe it could go up again due to rising costs from tariffs and global trade issues. Some economists think inflation might reach 3.7% by mid-2026.
What a 2.7% Increase Could Mean for Monthly Payments
If the COLA ends up being 2.7%, here’s how much monthly Social Security checks might increase for different groups of people. These are just estimates based on average payments in mid-2025.
| Group | Average 2025 Payment | Estimated Monthly Increase | Estimated 2026 Payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retired Worker | $2,005 | $54 | $2,059 |
| Retired Couple (Both Qualify) | $4,010 | $108 | $4,118 |
| Disability Beneficiary | $1,582 | $43 | $1,625 |
| Widow or Widower | $1,865 | $50 | $1,915 |
| Child of Deceased Worker | $1,137 | $31 | $1,168 |
These increases are designed to help older adults and others on fixed incomes keep up with rising living costs.
Medicare Premiums Could Offset the Increase
Even with a 2.7% bump, not all seniors will feel the full benefit. Medicare Part B premiums are also expected to rise in 2026. Experts predict the standard premium could increase from about $185 in 2025 to around $206.50 in 2026. This would eat into the Social Security increase for many seniors, especially those receiving lower monthly checks.
Experts Say the Increase May Not Be Enough
While a 2.7% increase might sound helpful, several experts say it may still fall short of covering actual cost increases for older Americans. Housing, health care, and everyday needs often rise faster than general inflation. Some professionals, including economists and Social Security analysts, believe the CPI-W does not fully represent the real expenses seniors face.
Because of this, there are growing concerns that Social Security benefits are not keeping up with the true cost of living for retirees. The way COLA is currently calculated has been questioned by many experts who believe a more accurate formula is needed.
A Look Back at Past COLA Increases
To better understand how this new estimate compares with past years, here’s a quick view of COLA adjustments from recent years:
| Year | COLA Increase |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Estimated 2.7% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
The large increases in 2022 and 2023 happened due to sharp rises in inflation. But now, as inflation slows down, so do the adjustments.
Aside from the COLA, seniors may benefit from a separate tax break. A provision in President Trump’s recent bill allows Americans aged 65 and older to get a temporary tax deduction of up to $6,000. This change could provide additional financial help for some seniors.